MoatLedger Wonderful companies at fair prices. A ledger, kept patiently.

The Ledger

Every verdict on this site is dated, priced, and graded in public. Including the wrong ones. Most commentary asks you to remember the wins; a ledger remembers everything.

DateTickerVerdictPrice thenPrice nowChangeOutcomeAnalysis
Sep 3, 2026EXPDpass$187.67$187.670.0%pendingExpeditors International: A Fine Business Priced Like an Indestructible One
Sep 2, 2026ERIEpass$258.48$258.480.0%pendingErie Indemnity: A Tollbooth Without a Discount
Sep 1, 2026DHIpass$141.55$141.550.0%pendingD. R. Horton: A Fine Builder at a Price That Isn't
Aug 31, 2026CTSHpasspendingCognizant: A Cheap Watch That Must Also Tell the Time
Aug 30, 2026COSTpass$943.96$938.22-0.6%pendingCostco: A Wonderful Business at the Wrong Price
Aug 30, 2026CPAYpass$406.32$414.27+2.0%pendingCorpay: A Fine Turnstile with a Steep Admission Fee
Aug 30, 2026CSXpass$51.30$48.78-4.9%pendingCSX: A Great Railroad, Priced Like a Lottery Ticket
Aug 29, 2026CMCSApasspendingComcast: A Toll Road That Can No Longer Raise the Toll
Aug 28, 2026CDNSpass$340.38$308.67-9.3%pendingCadence Design Systems: The Pickaxe Worth Admiring, Not Overpaying For
Aug 27, 2026CBOEpass$314.27$298.12-5.1%pendingCboe Global Markets: A Fine Exchange at the Wrong Price
Aug 26, 2026AXPpass$336.49$332.48-1.2%pendingAmerican Express: A Wonderful Business Priced as If It Were a Wonderful Investment
Aug 25, 2026APHpass$158.93$158.16-0.5%pendingAmphenol: A Great Business Wearing an Awkward Price Tag
Aug 24, 2026AOSpass$62.74$59.09-5.8%pendingA. O. Smith: Hot Water, Cold Price
Aug 23, 2026Apass$159.00$151.12-5.0%pendingAgilent Technologies: Excellent Business, Impolite Price
Aug 22, 2026PGpass$142.85$147.17+3.0%pendingProcter & Gamble: A Perfect Business at an Imperfect Price
Aug 21, 2026WMTwatch$103.83$106.43+2.5%openWalmart: A 9% Drop and Still No Margin of Safety
Aug 17, 2026MGRCwatchopenMcGrath RentCorp: A Rentable Business at an Unrentable Price
Aug 9, 2026HIGwatch$143.34$138.50-3.4%openHartford: A Genuine Moat Priced at Its Own Estimate
Jul 16, 2026Awatch$136.07$151.12+11.1%openAgilent: A Widening Moat Priced as if It Were Already Widest
Jul 16, 2026AOSwatch$60.31$59.09-2.0%openA. O. Smith: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026APHwatch$153.40$158.16+3.1%openAmphenol: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Believes
Jul 16, 2026AXPwatch$361.56$332.48-8.0%openAmerican Express: A Fine Business Standing Behind a Tall Wall of Price
Jul 16, 2026CBOEwatch$277.84$298.12+7.3%openCboe Global Markets: An Exclusive License, Priced Like There's No Ceiling
Jul 16, 2026CDNSwatch$364.99$308.67-15.4%openCadence Design Systems: A Great Business Waiting on a Better Price
Jul 16, 2026CMCSApasspendingComcast: A Wide Discount on a Narrowing Moat
Jul 16, 2026COSTwatch$945.57$938.22-0.8%openCostco: A Wonderful Business at a Price That Already Spent the Decade
Jul 16, 2026CPAYwatch$373.13$414.27+11.0%openCorpay: A Good Business Waiting at the Wrong Price
Jul 16, 2026CSXwatch$50.79$48.78-4.0%openCSX: A Fine Railroad, Priced for a Takeover That Hasn't Happened
Jul 16, 2026CTSHpasspendingCognizant: A Good Price for a Shrinking Moat
Jul 16, 2026DHIwatch$154.41$141.55-8.3%openD. R. Horton: A Wide Moat Built on Endurance, Priced for Perfection
Jul 16, 2026ERIEwatch$226.51$258.48+14.1%openErie Indemnity: A Fine Fee Machine That Still Costs Too Much
Jul 16, 2026EXPDwatch$181.50$187.67+3.4%openExpeditors International: A Fine Business Waiting on a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026FASTwatch$46.47$48.30+3.9%openFastenal: Excellent Business, Reverse Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026FFIVwatch$401.53$391.11-2.6%openF5, Inc.: A Real Moat Priced as If It Were Larger
Jul 16, 2026GDwatch$367.67$363.00-1.3%openGeneral Dynamics: A Fine Business Waiting for a Fair Price
Jul 16, 2026HIGwatch$136.16$138.50+1.7%openThe Hartford: An Excellent Insurer Priced Like One
Jul 16, 2026HIIwatch$270.79$287.73+6.3%openHuntington Ingalls: A Monopoly That Can't Raise Prices
Jul 16, 2026JBHTwatch$298.41$262.32-12.1%openJ.B. Hunt: A Narrow Moat Quoted Like a Wide One
Jul 16, 2026KOwatch$84.59$88.02+4.1%openCoca-Cola: A Wonderful Company at an Unwonderful Price
Jul 16, 2026LULUpasspendingLululemon: When Full Price Stops Working
Jul 16, 2026METAwatch$663.29$593.71-10.5%openMeta Platforms: A Widening Moat Priced Past Its Own Arithmetic
Jul 16, 2026MRSHwatch$182.18$188.43+3.4%openMarsh McLennan: A Wonderful Broker at an Uncomfortable Price
Jul 16, 2026NSCwatch$339.30$332.84-1.9%openNorfolk Southern: A Fine Railroad Priced as a Done Deal
Jul 16, 2026NVRwatch$6,706.52$6,320.57-5.8%openNVR: The Builder That Refuses to Own the Dirt
Jul 16, 2026ODFLwatch$237.15$188.74-20.4%openOld Dominion: A Fortress Priced Like a Miracle
Jul 16, 2026OKEwatch$93.01$95.72+2.9%openOneok: A Good Business Standing Above Its Value
Jul 16, 2026PCARwatch$126.67$122.80-3.1%openPaccar: A Wonderful Business Standing Outside the Buying Range
Jul 16, 2026PGwatch$150.78$147.17-2.4%openProcter & Gamble: A Perfect Business at an Imperfect Price
Jul 16, 2026PHMwatch$129.04$124.23-3.7%openPulteGroup: A Good Capital Allocator, Priced for a Boom That's Ending
Jul 16, 2026PTCwatch$127.38$151.81+19.2%openPTC: A Fine Moat That the Market Has Stopped Discounting
Jul 16, 2026PYPLpasspendingPayPal: Cheap, But the Moat Is Narrowing
Jul 16, 2026RMDwatch$201.99$236.47+17.1%openResMed: A Wide Moat Priced Beyond Its Worth
Jul 16, 2026ROSTwatch$232.21$230.60-0.7%openRoss Stores: A Bargain Business at a Full Price
Jul 16, 2026TJXwatch$154.99$131.67-15.1%openTJX: A Wonderful Business Asking a Difficult Price
Jul 16, 2026TSCOwatch$31.03$35.18+13.4%openTractor Supply: The Moat Is Real, the Price Tag Is Not
Jul 16, 2026UNHwatch$423.67$398.48-6.0%openUnitedHealth Group: Excellent Business, Absent Margin of Safety
Jul 16, 2026WMBwatch$74.86$74.37-0.7%openWilliams Companies: A Tollgate Worth Watching, Not Yet Touching
Jul 16, 2026WSTwatch$362.92$343.51-5.4%openWest Pharmaceutical Services: A Wider Moat at the Wrong Price

Grading is automatic — simple price returns, computed by the pipeline, not curated. Past results say nothing about future ones. Full ledger and methodology · Disclaimer

Desk stance 100% cash since 2026-09-02 — the desk's real allocation, disclosed as percentages only.

Latest Analysis

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Expeditors International: A Fine Business Priced Like an Indestructible One

Expeditors is a disciplined, debt-free freight forwarder, but at a 3.33% owner-earnings yield its price already assumes more than the moat delivers.

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Erie Indemnity: A Tollbooth Without a Discount

A look at Erie Indemnity's tollbooth moat, fee-driven earning power, and why a 42% decline still leaves no margin of safety.

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D. R. Horton: A Fine Builder at a Price That Isn't

D. R. Horton runs a disciplined, buyback-heavy homebuilding machine, but at fourteen times earnings into a downcycle the margin of safety hasn't arrived.

Watchlist at a Glance

Names on the ledger
139
Status: watch
139
Avg. owner-earnings yield
5.0%

Updated Sep 2, 2026, 15:13 UTC · Full watchlist

Latest Screen

Run of Aug 31, 2026 over S&P500 — 39 passed.

TickerNameROE 5yFCF yieldP/E
TJX TJX Companies 56.6%
ROST Ross Stores 37.8%
EXPD Expeditors International 37.3%
DECK Deckers Brands 34.8%
LULU Lululemon Athletica 34.6%
ROL Rollins, Inc. 34.4%
FAST Fastenal 32.6%
AXP American Express 32.5%
CPAY Corpay 31.3%
FDS FactSet 30.7%
PG Procter & Gamble 30.6%
ODFL Old Dominion 29.3%
MRSH Marsh McLennan 28.8%
COST Costco 28.2%
META Meta Platforms 27.5%
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC 27.3%
ANET Arista Networks 26.9%
AOS A. O. Smith 25.6%
ERIE Erie Indemnity 24.9%
PHM PulteGroup 24.6%
DHI D. R. Horton 22.6%
A Agilent Technologies 21.7%
MNST Monster Beverage Corp 21.2%
RMD ResMed 21.2%
CPRT Copart 21.2%
WST West Pharmaceutical Services 20.9%
PCAR Paccar 20.8%
TEL TE Connectivity 20.2%
JBHT J.B. Hunt 19.9%
PYPL PayPal 19.5%
WMT Walmart 18.7%
GD General Dynamics 17.2%
RJF Raymond James Financial 17.0%
CTSH Cognizant 16.6%
HIG Hartford (The) 16.4%
CBOE Cboe Global Markets 16.0%
LEN Lennar 15.8%
FFIV F5, Inc. 15.7%
PTC PTC Inc. 15.4%

All screen results and history

Sentinel — Recent Events

WMT price_drop Sharp one-session drop on WMT; the desk logged it and the verdict stands until re-read.
CDNS price_drop Sharp one-session drop on CDNS; the desk logged it and the verdict stands until re-read.
META price_drop Sharp one-session drop on META; the desk logged it and the verdict stands until re-read.

Full event log